What is happening to the weather???

Clouds at Crinan, Argyll, December 2012

The news about weather continues to confuse us. 2012 was one of the wettest years in the UK, 2013 will be one of the warmest years globally, yet the years from 2013 to 2017 will not be any warmer, and we are in the middle of the coldest winter for years.  All of these stories have appeared recently so what is really going on?   Let’s look at each in a little more detail. 

Wet, Wet, Wet

2012 was one of the wettest years recorded in the UK – unless you were lucky enough to live in the western isles.  The figures from the Met Office can be found here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/2012-weather-statistics

This shows that 2012 was the second wettest year in the UK national record dating back to 1910, and just a few millimetres short of the record set in 2000. All parts of the UK experienced above average rainfall, with the exception of northern Scotland, which received only 93% of the average.

What About 2013?

According to the Met Office it is very likely that 2013 will be one of the warmest years in the record, and it is likely to be warmer than 2012.  2013 is expected to be between 0.43 °C and 0.71 °C warmer than the long-term (1961-1990) global average of 14.0 °C, with a best estimate of around 0.57 °C.  For the details see:  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/2013-global-forecast .  However before we all head for the beach it must be remembered this is a global forecast and temperatures in Scotland will not necessarily follow the global projection.

And For the Remainder of the Decade?

The Met Office publishes decadal forecasts , available here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc

Global average temperature is expected to remain between 0.28 °C and 0.59 °C above the long-term (1971-2000) average during the period 2013-2017, with values most likely to be about 0.43 °C higher than average.  The forecast of continued global warming is largely driven by increasing levels of greenhouse gases.  This 2012 decadal forecast attracted attention in the news because it shows a down turn in temperatures  toward the end of the decade.  This need not surprise us as temperatures will continue to go up and down from year to year, but the long term trend over the century is higher global average temperatures.  

So what about climate change?

This brings us to the big story: that despite the day to day, month to month and year to year variation the long term trend for the rest of the century is clear: climate change is happening and it will lead to profound and disturbing changes.  If you have any doubts just click here:  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/guide

But The Daily Express says!

“COLDEST WINTER IN 100 YEARS ON WAY.  A severe bout of cold weather looks to be heading Britain's way . Britain will grind to a halt within weeks as the most savage freeze for a century begins.” (Tuesday November 27, 2012)

Winter has a long way to go and the weather forecast for the remainder of January 2013 is looking colder so you have been warned!

By Adrian Shaw

8th January 2013.

Radio Scotland Thought for the Day on Flooding in Comrie

(Thought for the Day, 28 November 2012 - BBC Radio Scotland. From Alastair McIntosh, a Quaker, author and Fellow of the Centre for Human Ecology)

Listen to audio version here:


Download


Transcript:

Good Morning

The past ten days have seen thousands of people across England and Wales forced from their homes by flooding, but I myself was behind on the Scottish news, because I’d been out of the country.

Only last weekend did I catch up. I was visiting friends in the tiny Dumfriesshire village of Durrisdeer. It was a Sunday morning, and we went together to the service at the parish Church of Scotland. The preacher was Michael Northcott, an Episcopalian down from Edinburgh University, and his sermon was on the flooding at Comrie in Perthshire.

As one of the Comrie community councillors told the press: “Our Black Monday … will go down as … one of the bleakest seasons in the history of our community…. We have hundreds of residents deeply traumatised, fearful of the future and robbed of their homes.”*

Perth Council is now working on flood defences to prevent a recurrence. But the crux of the minister’s message at Durrisdeer was the strength with which the Comrie folks were looking out for one another, because whole families are taking in other whole families until their homes dry out.

“Jesus didn’t directly teach us to care for the Earth,” was the culmination of the sermon that Sunday. “Jesus taught us to love one another, and that’s the only way we’ll learn how to face the future by caring for the Earth.” 

I was left thinking back three years ago to when the Comrie Development Trust ran a conference on climate change. They were looking at how to reduce the village’s carbon emissions, but also, to strengthen their community resilience – the ability to bounce back from any knocks, by pulling together.

That’s the kind of preparation that’s now paying off in Comrie. That’s what makes this village at its time of greatest trial an inspiration to the whole of Scotland. And that too was the lesson from a tiny congregation in Dumfriesshire: the sheer imperative … of learning how to love one another.

* Perthshire Advertiser, 23 November 2012.

Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012 by European Environment Agency

The European Environment Agency (EEA) have published a report which presents information on past and projected climate change and related impacts in Europe, based on a range of indicators.

The report also assesses the vulnerability of society, human health and ecosystems in Europe and identifies those regions in Europe most at risk from climate change. Furthermore, the report discusses the principle sources of uncertainty for the indicators and notes how monitoring and scenario development can improve our understanding of climate change, its impacts and related vulnerabilities.

Urban flooding may be of particular interest to us here in Scotland. From the map you can see that the number of heavy rain days are on the increase, particularly in West Scotland.

Map borrowed from EEA: Urban flooding — impervious surfaces reduce the drainage of rain water and increase the risk for urban flooding (http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/urban-flooding-2014-impervious-surfaces)

Key messages from the executive summary include:

• Climate change (increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and decreases in ice and snow) is occurring globally and in Europe; some of the observed changes have established records in recent years.
• Observed climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on environmental systems and society; further climate change impacts are projected for the future.
• Climate change can increase existing vulnerabilities and deepen socio-economic imbalances in Europe.
• Damage costs from natural disasters have increased; the contribution of climate change to these costs is projected to increase in the future.
• The combined impacts of projected climate change and socio-economic development can lead to high damage costs; these costs can be reduced significantly by mitigation and adaptation actions.
• The causes of the most costly climate impacts are projected to differ strongly across Europe.
• On-going and planned monitoring and research at national and EU level can improve assessments of past and projected impacts of climate change, thereby enhancing the knowledge base for adaptation.

You can access the report here.

Climate Change Committee slams Government over dash for gas

The logo was borrowed from: http://www.sustainable-scotland.net/

The Sustainable Scotland Network reports that:

"An open letter sent to the Energy and Climate Change Secretary Ed Davey from the independent Climate Change Committee has warned that Chancellor George Osborne's plans for a surge in new gas investment would breach the Climate Change Act.

The Government recently stated that “it sees gas as continuing to play an important role in the energy mix well into and beyond 2030... restricted to providing back up to renewables”.

Whilst the CCC acknowledges that there is a medium-term need for gas to meet our energy needs, they state categorically that "extensive use of unabated gas-fired capacity (i.e. without carbon capture and storage technology (CCS)) in 2030 and beyond would be incompatible with meeting legislated carbon budgets".

The CCC suggested that an “appropriate approach would be to set a clear carbon objective for the EMR in secondary legislation (to reduce carbon intensity of power generation to around 50 gCO2 / kWh by 2030) as recommended by the Energy and Climate Change Select Committee.”

The letter has the potential to cause a major political row between the Lib Dems and Osborne who has been campaigning for further support for gas investment in the Energy Bill.

Earlier in the summer the Treasury had signalled that if a commitment to shelve the decarbonisation target could be agreed then it would support modest cuts to renewable energy subsidies. However Ed Davey stressed that the debate about the target was still on-going and that the Department of Energy and Climate Change still needed to formally respond to the CCC's recommendations.

With the pressure now mounting on Cameron to adopt the CCC’s recommendations in full and defy critics of the government's green policies, the argument over the target is likely to reach the top of the Government."

Here is a link to the letter: http://hmccc.s3.amazonaws.com/EMR%20letter%20-%20September%2012.pdf

Nick Clegg: stand strong on climate change

Logo borrowed from: https://secure.38degrees.org.uk/page/speakout/tell-clegg-to-stand-up-for-climate

Stop Climate Chaos Scotland supports the 38 degrees sign-up

"Right now, George Osborne is trying to tear up vital climate targets. But Nick Clegg can stop this happening. He’s made a strong public commitment to tackle climate change and he is the only Lib Dem who might have enough power to block George Osborne."

Send a letter to Nick Clegg via the 38 degrees webpage: https://secure.38degrees.org.uk/page/speakout/tell-clegg-to-stand-up-for-climate

Church of Norway issues statement on Climate Change

The Church of Norway Bishops` Conference gathered at Svalbard, Norway, has issued a statement on climate change:

The Church of Norway Bishops` Conference has visited Svalbard and experienced both the greatness and the vulnerability of nature. The Arctic is a barometer for the world`s climate. The dramatic climate changes are evident. During this journey the broad academic agreement regarding the consumption of fossil fuels has been confirmed as one of the causes of these changes. It is an urgent matter to reduce the world`s total greenhouse gas emissions.

The climate changes affect the poor of the world the hardest. The most vulnerable have the least of responsibility for today`s situation. The fight against the climate changes has to be balanced by the right to a worthy life. The climate crisis and the lack of energy have to be solved as one problem. The industrialized countries have to take responsibility to cut in emissions significantly.

The full statement can be found here:

http://www.kirken.no/english/news.cfm?artid=379612

Climate Change deniers mostly men argues Rev John Bell

In part of a wider ranging BBC Radio 4 "thought for the day" on masculinity and corporate sin, Rev John Bell argues that most climate change deniers are male:

"Because we live in a broadly patriarchal society, we should not be surprised that the culture which brought about the worldwide financial meltdown was overwhelmingly masculine. But consider also that the people who are most vocal in denying human responsibility for the disastrous effects of climate change are mostly male."

Read or listen to the full broadcast here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00sc633

How do we know how warm or cold it was in the past?

A frequently asked question is about changes in temperatures in the past.  This short article in The Guardian provides a quick introduction to the science  and the  sources of evidence that are used to piece together past climates.  The record from weather stations goes back 200 years at best.  Before that there are a range of proxies that can be used to assemble a picture of climate change in historical and geological time. 

Follow this link for the full article:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/mar/07/past-climate-temperature-proxies

Could climate change make livestock disease more common?

The Farmers Guardian quotes NFU’s chief advisor on renewable energy and climate change, Dr Jonathan Scurlock, saying that the warmer climate meant midges carrying virus were ‘thriving.

Dr Scurlock said Schmallenberg and Bluetongue were able to cross over to Britain from the Continent because the midges, which are thought to be responsible for carrying the disease over the Channel, survived a warm winter. He added drought will also become more common because of climate change.

For the full article see here:

http://www.farmersguardian.com/climate-change-could-make-livestock-disease-more-common/45186.article

UK Government issues drought warning.

According to The Guardian newspaper:

Half of all households in Britain could face water restrictions unless exceptionally heavy and prolonged rain falls by April, water companies and the environment agency have warned.

The environment secretary, Caroline Spelman, will hold a crisis meeting of companies, wildlife groups and other river users next week after the Centre for Hydrology and Ecology (CEH) stated that the average rainfall so far this winter has been the lowest since 1972, and the English Midlands and Anglian regions have had their second driest years in nearly a century.

As the rainfall graphs show, Scotland is getting wetter and England and Wales drier:

Scotland in 2011: what was the weather like?

We all moan about the weather, sometime with good reason, but it’s good to keep a record of what 2011 was really like.  It may have seemed like another year of poor weather but in fact it was the sixth warmest year on record.  

The graph has been prepared by Richard Dixon of WWF Scotland.  The black line shows the actual temperatures for each month of 2011 and the green line the average temperatures for the years 1971-2000.  The year started off with temperatures slightly below average for January followed by four months (February – May) when temperatures were above average.  The summer was slightly cooler than average and then there was a very mild autumn. 

In fact Scotland had the warmest spring and second warmest autumn on record and was also (not shown in the graph) the wettest year since the records began in 1910.  April and November were the warmest recorded.   Overall 5 months were 1 degree Celsius above average and 2 were 2 degrees above average.
One warm year does not mean climate is changing but the record for the past two decades has seen temperatures consistently above average.  As the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere continues to increase, now 390 parts per million and rising at about two parts per million each year, we can expect to see more above average temperatures and more records broken in coming years. 

Adrian Shaw

Climate change castaways consider move to Australia

From the Sidney Morning Herald:

THE President of what could be the first country in the world lost to climate change has urged Australia to prepare for a mass wave of climate refugees seeking a new place to live.
The Maldivian President, Mohamed Nasheed, said his government was considering Australia as a possible new home if the tiny archipelago disappears beneath rising seas.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-castaways-consider-move-to-australia-20120106-1pobf.html#ixzz1ixP8ZX00

Radio Interview about COP 17 Durban

Adrian Shaw form the Church of Scotland Climate Change project and Eco-Congregation Scotland spoke to Cathy MacDonald on her radio show last sunday about the Durban conference.

You can listen to the interview here:



Or download it here.

Ghana - Religious Bodies Network on Climate Change

Churches in Ghana have formed an organisation called RELBONET (The Religious Bodies Network on Climate Change). They write:

The issues of climate change have reached alarming proportions especially in Africa, where climate effects are wrecking havoc and pain on the rural poor through massive relocation of peoples from their original positions through excessive floods, crop failures due to climate variability, erosion of coastal areas and threats of desertification.
These effects have implications for food safety and security, health and education in African countries that are already known to be vulnerable to these disasters.
The Religious Bodies Network on Climate Change [RELBONET] in Ghana has decided to raise a platform which shall enable them better understand the issues of climate change and its effects. The rationale for that decision is to position them to better carry out advocacy for the legislation of good climate policies and actions by Government to stem the tide of climate effects and enhance sustainable development efforts in Ghana.

RELBONET recently held a three day conference on climate change the report of which can be downloaded here (pdf file).

It is interesting that the conclusions they reached about public engagement with government policy, and the ability of churches to reach people are so similar to what we have found here in Scotland with Eco-Congregation:

The Conference ended very successfully and called for regular interactions between RELBONET, policy makers and implementers as they sought to do in their strategic plan. Continuous education and public awareness activities are to take centre stage throughout the country by member organizations and their representatives and organs to spread throughout the country. RELBONET called on Government, Development Partners and INGOS to seriously engage and partner Religious Bodies in all stakeholder events in order to enrich their discourses and plans. RELBONET is to use its numerical advantage to reach out to a critical mass of citizens with behavioral change messages from the pulpits and their schools, colleges and universities which are properly positioned for such interventions.

Photographs of the conference:

Climate change migration warning

A new international report, published today, reveals that the major challenges associated with migration and environmental change have been underestimated. By focusing solely on those that might leave vulnerable areas, we risk neglecting those that will be ‘trapped’ and those that will actually move towards danger.


One of the reasons the report was commissioned was to examine concerns that the environmental degradation caused by climate change would lead to millions of so-called climate refugees abandoning sterile farmland and migrating to countries less affected by the problem.

Detailed analysis commissioned specifically for the study found that this was unlikely to be the case. Three-quarters of the migration, it says would be within national borders - predominantly from rural to urban areas.
The issue, according to Professor Beddington, was to ensure that the migration was properly managed - otherwise, he said, it was likely there would be widespread humanitarian disasters on an unprecedented scale.


You can read a BBC article on the report here.

Details of  The Migration and Global Environmental Change Foresight Report can be found on the Government's Foresight web site here.

Radio programme about Vatican report on Climate Change

The BBC World Service reported recently on the Vatican report on Climate Change.

"The Vatican has published a report calling for mankind to take "decisive action" on climate change. In a new report on glacier melt, the Vatican's Pontifical Academy of Sciences appeals to all nations to reduce their impact on the environment, as "we all live in the same home". But will the faithful listen, and will the Catholic church be able to rouse humanity to action on climate change where so many other international leaders have struggled? One Planet goes behind the scenes at the Vatican to talk to Marcelo Sanchez Sorondo, chancellor of the Academy of Sciences, about the report. 

Also on the show, we ask whether science and religion can ever be compatible - we get opposing views from Professor Richard Dawkins and Chancellor Sanchez Sorondo.
Plus, we check out the Vatican's solar panels, talk to the pilgrims on St Peter's Square, and check out the view from the tallest building in the world's smallest state."

You can hear a recording of the programme here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/i/p00gy4jj/

Faiths have people power.

Interesting article by Ian Christie (Fellow of the Centre for Environmental Strategy, University of Surrey) in Moving Mountains - how can faith shape our future? published by Forum For the Future:

...... faiths have people power: four in five of us are, to some extent, members of faith communities. If just a fraction of this huge body of believers were to connect their faith to sustainable development and act accordingly, with the support of their institutions, the gains could be world-changing.
(from A World of Faith by Ian Christie)

Read the full publication containing this article here (pdf file).

Interview with Charles Agboklu of the Evangelical Presbytrerian Church of Ghana climate change programme

Carol Finlay of the Church of Scotland World Mission Council recently interviewed Charles Agboklu about the work the EP church is doing to combat climate change. You can listen to the 30 minute interview below:

Climate change and social justice

A new report from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation addresses this issue:

What it means to be vulnerable to climate change and how early examples of climate change adaptation may affect vulnerable groups in society.

Climate change will, among other impacts, bring increased risks to health and well-being from more frequent and intense heatwaves, as well as increased droughts threatening the security of affordable water supplies in the UK.

This report:

• introduces the concept of vulnerability to climate change within the context of social justice;
• examines two early case studies of adaptation in the south-west of England: the implementation of the national Heatwave Plan; and the trend towards differential water pricing based on usage (including the trial of a rising block tariff for water); and
• highlights the need for a more systematic consideration of current and future vulnerabilities in local, sectoral and national adaptation planning.

Click here to read the full report and its summary.



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Series on Climate change issues in Developing Countries

The BBC has been doing a series on Climate Change. They are interviewing scientists as well as ordinary people on their perceptions of climate change. the series is going to different parts of the world to see how people in different cultures are coping with the changes in their environment. This issue is looking at people's perceptions in developing countries that climate change is an act of God. It is a very interesting series. Have a look.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p00c2glz/The_Climate_Connection_The_Climate_Connection_2010_Lost_In_Translation/