International Energy Agency - World Energy Outlook 2012

On the 12 November the International Energy Agency published the World Energy Outlook 2012. A
summary of the World Energy Outlook can be downloaded here: http://www.iea.org/

The report makes for grim reading. Oil consumption in China, India and the Middle East continues
to grow with much of this growth down to increases in road traffic, both cars and road freight.
Similarly demand for coal and gas is rising in the same parts of the world. More surprisingly the
report predicts that oil and gas production in the USA will increase as new technologies unlock oil
shale and gas with the result that the USA will become more self-sufficient in oil and gas and that the
price of both will drop in North America.

The new technologies being implemented in the USA includes fracking that has opened up new gas
fields and has reduced the price of gas to American consumers. This may be good news for the US
economy but has potentially disastrous consequences for climate change. The IEA argues that it will
be impossible to limit global temperature increases to two degrees Celsius if these newly accessible
resources of oil and gas are exploited. In fact says the IEA ‘no more than one-third of proven reserves
of fossil fuels can be consumed prior to 2050 if the world is to achieve the 2 °C goal, unless carbon
capture and storage (CCS) technology is widely deployed.’

This is a stark reminder that the global resources of oil, coal and gas, if fully exploited, will return to
the atmosphere sufficient quantities of carbon dioxide to create climate change impacts that could
be as profound and they are unpredictable. Given our modest success in restraining the use of fossil
fuels and the attraction of cheap oil and gas, this prospect is becoming increasingly likely.

It must be said that the IEA projections have not gone unchallenged. Gail Tverberg has argued that
the projections are unrealistically high and the cost of developing the new resources will slow their
development. You can read her arguments here:
http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/11/13/iea-oil-forecast-unrealistically-high-misses-diminishing-returns/

The Carbon Economy in Scotland

Around the upper estuary of the River Forth is the visible evidence of Scotland’s development as a carbon economy.


Coal
One of the earliest examples of Scotland’s coal industry is found at Culross. The now picturesque town was built on the wealth generated by coal mining. Sir George Bruce was the first to introduce machinery to drain coal pits and dig deep beneath the sea bed in the seventeenth century; as a result he helped turn Culross into an early industrial centre and one of the busiest ports on the east coast.

The exploitation of coal for electricity generation developed on a massive scale in the twentieth century. Near Culross is Longannet Power station, the largest in Scotland, which produces over 10 million tons of CO2 each year and produces 1200 MW of electricity. This is now the largest single source of greenhouse gases in Scotland.

OilAcross the river is the location of the early development of Scotland’s oil industry: the oil shales of West Lothian were exploited in the nineteenth century. This source was soon inadequate but did lead to the location of a refinery and petro-chemical industry at Grangemouth, now processing 10 million tons of oil a year from the North Sea and elsewhere in the world.



The development of Scotland’s carbon industries has had a massive impact on the economy, communities and environment of Scotland. Around the upper Forth estuary carbon industries dominate the area. And the impact on the wider world has been significant; with important trade in both importing and exporting carbon fuels and products.

The Carbon Economy and Climate Change.
The area is responsible for the release of tens of millions of tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere each year; directly and indirectly perhaps a third of Scotland’s total. It is also a transport hub with major road and rail bridges and major oil terminal at Dalmeny. Paradoxically it is also at risk of flooding. Any rise in sea level will put local communities and businesses in jeopardy; including the carbon based industries themselves.

Why is this of Interest to the Church of Scotland ?
The Church of Scotland is concerned that climate change poses a serious and immediate threat to people everywhere, particularly to the poor of the earth; and that climate change represents a failure in our stewardship of God’s creation. We accept the need to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases urgently to avoid dangerous and irreversible climate change; and to promote a more equitable and sustainable use of energy.

Fossil fuels are gifts of creation and we have used them to enrich ourselves: for warmth and comfort, domestic convenience and mass transportation around the globe. Has this comfort and convenience been purchased at a cost to the generations that follow? If our massive consumption of carbon fuels leads to damaging climate change does this then represent a failure in our duty of care for creation – and care for each other? If we are called to care for creation and for others how should we then respond as Christian churches? And how should those training for the ministry address this concern in their ministry in coming years; both in preaching and in action?

The Church of Scotland is trying responding to climate change and grappling with these issues.

Credits
The photograph of burning coal was taken by Bruno Ciampi. the photograph of Grangemouth was taken by Paradasos


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